Emerging Asian economies are outperforming forecasts, driving global GDP growth upward. Industrial output, exports and resilient consumer spending combined for the region's strongest quarter in three years — single-handedly lifting the global outlook.
Where the growth came from
Electronics and machinery exports surged as supply chains normalized, while infrastructure spending kept construction humming. Services rebounded as tourism returned to pre-pandemic levels across Southeast Asia.
Why forecasters missed it
Models underestimated domestic demand. Rising real wages and cooling inflation left households with more to spend, cushioning the region against weaker orders from slower-growing Western markets.
Risks on the horizon
Crude oil prices climbed to new yearly highs amid renewed geopolitical instability in key producing regions, threatening import bills. Central banks in the region say they remain ready to act if energy costs feed through to prices.
Key takeaways
- Emerging Asia posted its strongest quarter in three years.
- Domestic demand, not just exports, drove the upside surprise.
- Rising crude prices are the main threat to the momentum.
David Lee
Markets Desk analyst covering global trade, equities and cross-border investment.
